A Good Crisis

Any decent crisis generates some measure of stress, unhappiness, and finger-pointing.  But oftentimes, it also provides a silver-lining in the sense of presenting an opportunity for doing some soul-searching.  The budget crisis we are facing in California is a good crisis. The press is already doing a very good job with the stress, unhappiness and finger-pointing so we’ll leave that job in their capable hands.  Let us turn instead to the opportunity in front of us to, first, understand the problem, and then, consider what we can do as members of a democracy to tackle this issue. This budget crisis is one heck of a wake-up call.  What is more shocking than waking up one morning to find ourselves with a 24-odd BILLION dollar budget deficit, is the sad realization that we really understand very little of how our government is using OUR money.  When I looked through the voter information pamphlet for last week’s special elections, I was truly stumped.  Do they really expect me to be able to make an informed budgetary decision based on the information provided?  If this happened at work and someone came to me to approve a cost-cutting proposal that was heavy with budgetary minutiae, but light on impact analysis and financial modeling, I’d send them packing. What we have here is not just a budget crisis, but a governance crisis.  With corporate governance, the stockholders (us) elect a board of directors to hire and advise the top executives.  Every quarter, we demand a rigorous reporting (10Q/K) reviewed by external accountants.  If we don’t like what we see, we short the stock. With our government, we take a completely different approach.  We elect the executives (in the form of government officials), forgo all reporting, and then just hope and pray that they “do the right thing”.  Some might be quick to point out that the government operates very differently from for-profit enterprises.  While corporations can boil down their performance into a set of quantifiable metrics based on profitability and growth (apologies in advance to fans of the balanced scorecard), the performance of the government is much harder to quantify and the demands of each stakeholder (members of the electorate) are unique.  When we attended a talk by SF Mayor Gavin Newsom at the UC Berkeley Haas School of Business last month (embed link), he made the same point. So where does that put us?  One the one hand, governing our government is harder than governing our for-profit enterprises.  One the other hand, if we add up all the different taxes and fees that we pay, we each contribute close to half of our income to that establishment.  Put it another way, we spend more of our wealth on our government than we spend on any of our other expenditures (e.g. our housing, our car(s), food, clothing, etc) but we spend much less of our time figuring out if we are getting the best bang for our buck. We need to do more, that much is clear.  What we need to do, unfortunately, is much less clear.  I wish there was a website we could go to that would quickly bring us up to speed on our government, to the point that we can make responsible decisions on things like the special elections.  It would be even nicer if this “magic” website can help me track the performance of my government on the issues I care about the way I can track EPS, revenue growth and margins on the stocks I care about. The “How-to-Manage-Your-Government-for-Dummies” website doesn’t (yet) exist.  While we wait for it to be created, there are a couple things we can do: Educate Ourselves – Government websites actually provide a plethora of information regarding current legislation being proposed, the budget, and other areas of government action.  It does take a good amount of effort to go through this information… but heck, we’re paying for it already, right? Get Involved – Democracy is more than just going out to vote.  Take the time to find the organizations that align with your particular political slant and get involved! Actively engage the causes that you support.  Take the initiative to raise awareness for issues that you feel strongly about.  If you feel sufficiently motivated, please go create the “How-to-Manage-Your-Government” website… you will win the gratitude of millions! Help Raise a Smarter Electorate – One of the challenges to being a better voter is being able to understand the complex system that is our government.  Most of us went through a K-12 education that taught a very linear, cause-and-effect style of reasoning.  That deeply ingrained linear mentality makes us woefully unprepared to grapple with the multi-sided tradeoffs that are required to make intelligent decisions in a democracy.  One person who has championed a new approach to education… that will hopefully raise a new generation of better thinkers, and, hence, better voters… is Professor Jay Forrester at MIT Sloan.  If you are raising a couple of future voters, I would strongly urge you to take a look at the Creative Learning Exchange and see how you can help promote these concepts at your local schools. Democracy is a wonderful thing to enjoy… but it also takes a lot of work to earn.  For our friends who hope to spread the seeds of democracy, I urge them to learn all they can about the strengths and weaknesses of the US democratic process.  When we, the people, are given the right to govern ourselves, we also take on the heavy burden of managing our government… a responsibility that many of us in the US have shirked.  Do we want to realize the dreams of those who sacrificed two decades ago?  Only when we fully appreciate the magnitude of the challenge, will we be able to bring those dreams closer to reality.

危难中的机会 在学校念书的时候，有一天一个教授把我叫到讲台上，要我用中文在黑板上写下两个大字“危机”，并在两个字的下方分别注明对应的英文翻译。随后他开始大赞中国人的智慧和乐观精神：从词语构造来看，英文中危难和机会两个词互不相关，事实上，机会跟危难总是结伴而行（ “Wherever there is a crisis, there is an opportunity”），中国人深知此理，所以把两个字放在一起组成“危机”这个词语。 现实生活中，危难往往带来一定程度的压力、不悦、相互指责，可是，乌云背后也总是透出一线光芒，指引人们退居自己的灵魂深处进行反思。 加州政府的这次预算危机，危难中也见机会。我们借此看到了至少两件我们可以做的事：一、进一步理解问题的所在；二、作为这个民主社会的一员，在我们力所能及的范围之内探索问题的解决方案。 请让我先把事情的经过简单叙述一下。2009－2010财年加州政府面临240亿美元的财政赤字。以州长阿诺·施瓦辛格率领的加州政府领导班子面临两个选择：增加可支出经费或者缩减支出。前者意味着加税、发放国债等等，后者意味着取消或压缩部分州政府资助项目。两条都是窄路，都不得民心，谁做这个决定谁就有输掉下一界选举的可能。于是州政府出了一招：让选民自己决定是否愿意交更多的税，是否愿意取消或压缩州政府资助项目，哪些州政府资助项目可以被取消或压缩。如果选民自己做了决定，将来他们谁也不能责怪，不是吗？选民把球接过来一看说，你让我投票我就投啊？我可不上当。你碰到难题就让我给你找答案，那我雇你干什么用？于是他们又把球抛回去了。5月19号的投票结果显示，不到25％的选民参与投票；6个提案中，只有最后一项关于在政府经费出现赤字的年头高级政府官员的工资不得上涨的命名为1F的提案得以通过，其它5项均被否决。（值得一提的是，1F提案涉及的资金大约为50万美金，也就是说，下一年中，受到这个提案影响的一部分高级政府官员的工资保持不变，将节省大约50万美金的政府开支，而根据估计，组织这次选举的花费约为6000万至1亿美金。） 警钟敲醒梦中人。震惊的是某一天我们一觉睡醒发现自己竟然合伙背了24亿美元的债务；而悲哀的是，我们发现自己对政府到底在如何支配我们自己的钱财只是略知皮毛。 在读过上周的特别选举的选民信息手册之后，我们不禁困惑：拥有知情权的我们，得到的就只是这样的情报吗？在工作中，如果有人给我提交一个预算方案，其中堆砌着繁琐的细目和生僻的术语、却不提供任何收益分析和财务模型，我想我会当即请他打包走人。 我们这里面临的不仅仅是预算危机，更多的是监管危机。在商业监管系统中，股东们选举出董事会，董事会雇佣公司的核心管理成员。每一季、每一年我们都要求他们提交经由第三方会计事务所审核的报告（10Q/10K）。如果我们觉得这些报告不具说服力，我们会卖空手上的股票。 在政府监管系统中，我们却采取完全不同的方法。我们选举出核心管理成员之后，把大小事务一揽子全都托付给他们，不要求他们提供任何报告，只是双手合十，祷告他们可以“为我们”做出正确的决定。当然，有人会争论说政府监管和公司监管不尽相同。我们可以制定出盈利率和市场增长率等非常量化的指标来衡量公司的业绩（向推崇平衡记分卡的朋友致歉）；相对而言政府的业绩更难以量化，而且，每个股东（每个选民）都有各自独特的需求。上个月我们去伯克利大学商学院参加了旧金山市市长盖文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）的演讲会，他也强调了这个观点。 看来我们身处困境之中。一方面，监管政府要比监管商业机构困难，另一方面，我们把自己向政府上缴的各种税、费加起来，总额占到我们收入的一半；一方面，我们花在政府的钱远比我们花在房、车、衣服、食物等等的钱要多得多，另一方面，我们却花着少得多的时间琢磨我们如何利用这笔巨额花费给我们创造更大的收益。 清楚的是，我们需要采取行动，不太清楚的是，如何采取行动？真希望政府提供一个网站，让我们快速地了解政府的所作所为，以便我们能对类似这次特别选举的行动做出负责任的回应。当然， 如果这个网站还能提供一系列针对政府业绩表现制定的类似于我们用来衡量公司的每股收益、市场增长率、盈利能力等等的相应指标，那就更好了。 不幸的是，至今为止我们还没有一个这样的 “傻瓜指南：如何管理你自己的政府” 网站。在我们等待这样的网站诞生的时候，其实还有几件事是我们可以同时操作的： 自我教育。政府的网站提供了大量关于法案、预算、其它各种举措的信息。一一读过的确需要花费很多的时间，不过，既然我们已经花费了很多金钱，再花费一点时间优化一下收益也是很必要的。 积极参与。花点时间找到代表你利益的政治团体，成为其中的一员。积极参与你信仰和支持的事业和活动。如果你有足够的精力和热情，给你所关心的事务建立一个相应的“傻瓜指南：如何管理你自己的政府”网站，千百万人会为之感激你。 培养更聪明的选民。成为一个聪明的选民的挑战之一是深切地认识到政府这个系统的复杂性。我们的教育系统传授给我们的是一个线性地分析因果的思考方式。在民主制度生活下的公民享受和服务民主的一个必备能力，是做出多边的成本和利益的交换和取舍的明智决定的能力。而植根于我们头脑中的线性思考方式削弱了这个能力。麻省理工学院的杰·福斯特（Jay Forrester）教授正在推动一项从幼儿园到高中教育的改革运动，有望培养更好的思考者，这些更好的思考者也有望成为更好的选民。如果你有孩子，强烈建议你对福斯特教授的 “创造性学习互换（Creative Learning Exchange）” 项目作些了解，在当地的学校推广相应的概念。 民主非常美妙，但是需要付出很多努力才可以得到。立志传递民主火种的朋友们，希望你们充分理解每一个美国民主进程的优点和弱点。我们被赋予监管自己的权利，但是同时我们也背负了监管政府的重大责任，一个很多人都在逃避的重大责任。我们希望实现二十年前那些牺牲者的梦想吗？——只有更深刻地认识实现这个梦想的挑战性，我们才能更接近地发掘实现这个梦想的可能性。

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